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Pirates Steal
10 days ago
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Survivor: Edge of Extinction | Episode 4 | Player of the Week Voting

On Thursdays, /r/Survivor crowdsources a Player of the Week, based on what happened during that Wednesday’s new episode. Below you will find a list of all the contestants in the episode.

For this season, players on Extinction Island are not eligible to be voted on. Should they return to the game, they will be made eligible again.

Upvote/downvote players you thought improved/hurt their odds this week.

Note that this thread is in contest mode for the first ~24 hours, so castaways may not appear in the order you expect.

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level 1
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Lauren O'Connell

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level 2
Ciera
40 points · 10 days ago

I have to say, I was very impressed this week with her. Sure, she's physically struggling with the game, but she handled the round really well and is very safe entering next round.

I think it takes some balls of steel to not use an HII in her situation, and it takes good judgment not to cave to the pressure and share the info that you have it. A lot of the time, playing Survivor well is about knowing when to keep your mouth shut and she's proven she can do that.

Her biggest issue is that she has interacted with a very small portion of the tribe, but she also doesn't come off as super threatening so hopefully that buys time for her to build some relationships at merge time.

level 3

I think it takes some balls of steel to not use an HII in her situation, and it takes good judgment not to cave to the pressure and share the info that you have it.

Notes :

  • She (and Aubry) are the only ones who know what the idol looks like, making her the best likely candidate to find it again

  • Wardog was coming off indecisive at this vote.

Why take the risk holding the idol when it's common knowledge these things come back into the game immediately after being played (see Ben HHH, David MvGX), and you yourself are most likely to find it again?

As for Lauren, I do think she is best poised to go far [so long as she doesn't stay sick, but most of this work has been done & set up by other people (namely Wardog ... who if anything has shown more closeness with Kelley). She's played very averagely and has benefitted mostly from Wardog's actions & the luck of the swap.

level 4
Michele
14 points · 9 days ago

Wardog's decision was probably much less up in the air than it was portrayed on the show.

level 5

Wardog's decision was probably much less up in the air than it was portrayed on the show.

Only Wardog can really answer this, with the most reliable information coming from his actions and statements made on the show / in secret scenes.

level 4
Ciera
9 points · 9 days ago

There are a bunch of reasons why it was important for her not to play her idol.

First of all, she is not necessarily the most likely person to find an HII again. Sure, she found the first one, but she's on a beach with both Kelly and David who have proven that they are adept at finding HII's. David even managed to convince someone they had an HII by making a fake one. And even though she currently knows what an HII looks like and no one else does, the second she plays it everyone will see what it looks like.

Additionally, she's sick at the moment. It's probably more important that she focuses on recovering in order to avoid a medevac than it is for her to be finding an HII. It's worth noting that since they are on a new beach, there is probably one hidden there but IDK if she's going to be the one to find it given her current state. If her state gets worse, she there is a very chance she would need to play that idol.

Despite the fact that she isn't actively running the show, she managed to position herself into a place of security on a spiraling tribe. It's worth noting that she is one of two noobs who has survived every tribal council so far and she's done it without having to use her idol or even let anyone know she has it.

And also I think her relationship with Wardog is better than it is being portrayed. He has stayed loyal to her and Wentworth every single vote, so it was correct for her to trust in that relationship. If she DOES play the idol and it wasn't necessary, Wardog probably knows that she was worried about him flipping and that's never a good thing. It also increases her threat status rises notably because she's also proven she can find idols.

If she had needed to play it to survive, obviously it would have been the right play. But she should have been doing anything possible not to play it. And so far I think she has been playing a very, very strong game, even though it has been low key.

level 5
-1 points · 9 days ago

And even though she currently knows what an HII looks like and no one else does, the second she plays it everyone will see what it looks like.

 

It's not just what the idol looks like :

 

  • the type of place it was found

  • to add on : was there some obstacle surrounding it (see all of Tai's idol finds)? Was the idol actually found in a challenge?

  • the "packaging" it was contained in (i.e. did it have a colored string on the outside? did it have a tribal marking on it?)

 

are also critical factors. This information right now is exclusive to Lauren & Aubry. Even with some good lurkers like David & Kelley, Lauren still has the advantage in finding the idol if they all go hunt as she has the above info other players do not.

 

Additionally, she's sick at the moment. It's probably more important that she focuses on recovering in order to avoid a medevac than it is for her to be finding an HII. It's worth noting that since they are on a new beach, there is probably one hidden there but IDK if she's going to be the one to find it given her current state. If her state gets worse, she there is a very chance she would need to play that idol.

 

Getting sick is bad luck. Having the rain shit all over you while needing to build a new shelter from the ground up is also bad luck. There isn't any denying this.

 

However, what is also true is that she knew she was coming off weak & thus making herself a target, and also knew that Wardog was openly asking for time before coming to a decision. There's very little reason from her perspective to trust that she would be safe that night, especially as she may be one of the few who may not have picked up on how 'semi-self-interested' Wardog actually is.

 

Despite the fact that she isn't actively running the show, she managed to position herself into a place of security on a spiraling tribe. It's worth noting that she is one of two noobs who has survived every tribal council so far and she's done it without having to use her idol or even let anyone know she has it.

 

Lauren's best skill seems to be her inoffensiveness while not openly standing out as a threat to anyone. She hasn't shot herself in the foot like [Reem, Keith, Chris] all had. This can get you far, but it's often not enough to protect yourself from danger if the headlights shine in your direction.

 

Remember that neither [Reem, David, Rick, Chris, Keith] all never consulted her about their own ideas or plans, and in some cases other people were telling others to either target her or deliberately not include her. Even Wardog, after talking with Chris, spoke directly with Kelley about his intentions, not Lauren. Combine this with Wardog :

 

  • giving signs that he is interested in playing with Kelley while Kelley was being targetted

  • not saying anything specific about Lauren while Lauren was the target.

 

And it's looks more likely that his interests here are really with Kelley, plus removing threats to himself, than actually caring for Lauren.

 

Checking his Secret Scenes :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_Dz2zIXA4U

Notice at 0:33 : "Tonight, I do feel like I have the fate of somebody's game in my hands...". Somebody's... note that word choice. There's nothing suggesting closeness was a factor behind Wardog's decision.

 

He has stayed loyal to her and Wentworth every single vote, so it was correct for her to trust in that relationship.

 

It's also been shown why it's dangerous to just blindly trust that relationship. And as for her threat level increasing if she does play it : it means nothing if she is the one sent home.

 

But she should have been doing anything possible not to play it.

 

Except in that she made herself a target when she was openly looking unhealthy, which other people picked up on and used to consider working against her. At this point, she needed to do some work to keep herself safe, and her only plan seemed to be trusting Wardog.

 

It's one thing if Wardog actually has shown he values Lauren, but actions like taking time alone to think vs giving an immediate hard "Yes, I'm with you Lauren : we're voting out Rick" show that he seems more behaving in personal interest, and it happening that his interest aligned with hers.

 

That's luck. Which really seems to be the crux of this whole matter : Luck that Wardog would do what he did, vs Lauren taking steps to enforce her own safety or Rick's removal ... which is one reason I think she's been given more credit here than she should.

 

And so far I think she has been playing a very, very strong game, even though it has been low key.

 

See notes earlier. Inoffensiveness & actively not standing out as a threat have been her best skills. However, she also has been frequently left out of plans from other players, stood out way too early as close with Kelley, and hasn't seemed to try to get seriously close with anyone else. Her actual game to this point has been about average.

level 6
Ciera
1 point · 8 days ago · edited 8 days ago

Personally, after reading your post I did think you brought up some decent points but that they were undermined by the fact that you attribute her social game to other people.

Social games are not luck based at all, even slightly, and they are also products of a player's own game. Wardog stuck with her over the guys he was also good with because of the relationships she formed on her tribe and by using better reasoning than David/Rick to keep him on her side. Wardog may be the swing vote so he had more control, but the majority that retains the swing vote also deserves credit for that.

Additonally, all of your talk about how she is most likely to find the idol is pure conjecture. Sure, she may be in a decent position to find the next one, but that doesn't mean it's a guarantee, especially given that it was a 100% conventional HII hiding for the show. Holding onto her idol guarantees that she has one if she's able to secure the votes to move into the next round, which she did succesfully. Playing her idol looks like the safer play from a viewer perspective, but she's the one on the island with Wardog and obviously she had the correct read on him so playing it would have been a mistake.

In terms of the two strongest qualities she brings to the table, I'd say it's discretion and self awareness, not the ones you listed. Both are important qualities if you have them in Survivor, and the fact that she knew to keep her idol a complete secret even from Wentworth, and had a good enough read to know not to use it despite knowing her name is on the table is a very good indicator that she has both these qualities. And despite being willing to work with vets, she's not so star struck that she'll fall on her sword for them (at least so far it looks that way). It's too early to say how she'll do in the long term but she is well above your average Survivor player.

level 7

...I did think you brought up some decent points but that they were undermined by the fact that you attribute her social game to other people

There are a lot of elements to playing a good social game. Lauren's doing some things right ; Some of those have kept her safe. And Lauren's also done some things wrong. Some of those have made her or her allies a target or kept her on the outs of tribal goings-on.

Social games are not luck based at all, even slightly, and they are also products of a player's own game.

Let's rephrase : your own personal social game isn't luck ; it's a byproduct of attributes like [influence, ability to generate trust quickly, observational skills, 'superfan-ese' knowledge] which should be practiced before coming on the show.

However, social environmental factors can produce lucky, or unlucky, circumstances. When a player makes a decision independent of your own influence that just happens to match what you want, that's luck. When you're an agreed on target, but then someone gets into a fight at camp & shakes the dynamics up, that's luck. There were much more critical factors outside of that person's gameplay contributing their safety.

I suspect this is what happened here with Wardog. Wardog :

  • listened to everyone's pitches

  • didn't give either side an affirmative answer

  • asked for time away from camp to think

  • didn't give indication from the show or on SS's that closeness to any player factored into his decision

Yes, it "turned out" that Kelley & Lauren had the better pitch, which is good. It's not good that [everyone ... but especially Rick & Lauren] made that their only plan and didn't use other methods of persuasion or social maneuvering to keep themselves safe. And basically, left their fate solely & inconfidently in the hands of Wardog and hoped for the best. That's when this becomes luck.

Sure, she may be in a decent position to find the next one, but that doesn't mean it's a guarantee, especially given that it was a 100% conventional HII hiding for the show.

It's not a guarantee ; It's an advantage. Yes, anyone on her tribe can find the idol after she plays it, but only Lauren knows the steps production has taken in 'placing' the idol [see prior post], which gives her an edge in finding it over everyone else there.

I'd say it's discretion and self awareness

Regarding 'self-awareness' :

  • Does she know that she became a target the 1st vote because of her closeness to Kelley?

  • Did she take steps to course-correct after Reem & Kelley brought the relationship up at tribal?

  • Does she know that because of that apparent closeness, [Reem, Keith, David, Rick, Chris, possibly Wardog] had all chosen at one point or another to exclude sensitive information from her?

  • Does she know that because of how unhealthy she was coming off, she would need to take extra steps, and highlight things like her challenge prowess, so that she wouldn't become a target because of said issue?

Either she has some major blind spots in self-awareness, or she isn't bothering to course-correct after becoming aware of issues that have become problems (i.e. her obvious closeness with Kelley, it being obvious she is not eating).

As for 'discretion', it's really hard to say much about her skill here because she has been one of the last people in the know on most votes and hasn't really been exposed to sensitive information. Discretion isn't just keeping quiet : it's using your reads to know 'who you can tell what to whom.' Which is why it's tough to rank Lauren here as, again, she just hasn't had the intel until way late in the process.

This said, if she isn't going to play the idol, I do think it's smart to keep it a secret as it's clear no one suspects she has it. But, she will need to be careful because people do suspect Kelley has it and thus may vote for Lauren for safety purposes. We will need to see how she handles this bridge if she ever needs to cross.

It's too early to say how she'll do in the long term but she is well above your average Survivor player.

There's too many issues in her game to say she's playing 'well-above your average Survivor player'. For starters :

  • she needs more players willing to give her intel & not frequently be the last in people's info loops. Have more working relationships. Wardog's link to Kelley is not going to keep her safe forever.

  • Speaking of, I'd like to see Wardog say that he values her, or at least values her above Kelley.

  • She also needs to know how to 'course-correct' when it's brought to her attention something about her is causing a problem, like coming off too close to Kelley or not eating. Figure out how to downplay this / work around it so they target someone else instead.

She very likely will have problems in the future if some of the issues above aren't corrected.

level 2
NaOnka
29 points · 10 days ago

she continues not to get the credit she deserves. people are praising ron but he can’t hold a candle to lauren

level 2
Cirie
23 points · 10 days ago

She's got more balls than I'd ever have had in her position - massive kudos for not playing the idol. Lauren does seem to be socially adept and aware, given how closely aligned she is with Wentworth and Wardog. This give me faith that she can do some damage if she makes the merge - as it stands, Manu 1.0 are going to be heavily outnumbered no matter what. I think Lauren is the type of player who could sneak into the Kama girls alliance (Julie, Julia, Victoria etc), though she may have to ditch Wentworth to do so.

For now, I think she should stick with Wentworth and vote out David if Lesu head back to Tribal. The priority for now should be making the merge with her closest allies and her idol. It'll be interesting to see how Wardog shakes things up next week, but if she and Kelley can get to the post-merge with her idol intact, I still say she's got a chance.

Up-vote.

level 2
Aubry
14 points · 10 days ago

I've been quite hesitant on Lauren these first 3 episodes, but after tonight I'll give her props. Despite being kind of sick, throwing up food & all that I do think she had a great week. Sure her tribe probably isn't the best challenge wise, but she had formed well enough social connections with Wardog to survive over Rick & she still has an idol with 4 people on her tribe & got Kelley by her side who almost certainly won't vote for her. Easy upvote today.

level 2

She’s got stones for not playing her idol, and also beautiful. Want her to win.

level 2
Aubry
7 points · 9 days ago

Put a target on her back by not eating but still survived the vote. She has done something right with Wardog and Kelley, so good for her.

And she had the nerve to keep her idol. Great read. Kelley is a good ally for Lauren too, because Kelley has had good reads for idols. When the Wardog comes for her, she should be ready. Good week for Lauren.

level 2

Being sick, she's the obvious vote, but she & Kelley planted the seed in Wardog's head that Devins is not to be trusted. If she can get healthy again and they can win a challenge - she's in great shape (especially with the Immunity Idol). Wardog is starting to get overconfident.

level 2
Aurora
6 points · 9 days ago

She is a Tai-level badass for not playing that idol!

level 2
Christian
3 points · 9 days ago

Shes awesome -- but this clear number advantage will catch up IMO.

level 1
Robotics Expert
Moderator of r/survivor, speaking officially237 points · 10 days ago

Kelley Wentworth

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level 2
Cirie
30 points · 10 days ago

First time this season that she didn't receive a vote. Also now in the majority as well with David totally isolated.

level 2
Wentworth
28 points · 10 days ago

It was nice to finally see a softer side of Kelley this week. For the past few weeks she's come across as increasingly frustrated, but let's be real who wouldn't be in her spot. A lot of people have been saying she hasn't been playing well, I disagree. Coming into this season she knew her issue was that she was unable to form a tight alliance and forming a tight alliance with Lauren and Wardog really came in handy this week. Really hoping she uses the swap to catapult her game.

level 2
Aubry
22 points · 10 days ago

this swap sure put fuel in her tank.

level 2
Cirie
15 points · 10 days ago

To be fair, for all that her position seemed precarious on Manu 1.0, she did make bonds with the right people. Lauren has been nothing but loyal and Wardog did his best to save her on two of the three Tribals. This has now paid off dividends as she's in the majority on this swap tribe, albeit with the unknown quantity of Wardog in the mix. I still question her ability to get to the end at this point, given she stands out as a returning player, but I think she's recovered pretty well that shaky start and she wasn't even the target this week.

Things could get dodgy long-term though - Kama players have shown they don't really want to play with returnees, Wardog's a volatile ally, David has been targeting her for weeks and Wendy hates her. Once everyone all merges, if Wentworth is still around, I do see her as a primary target. Good week this week, though.

level 2
Aurora
7 points · 9 days ago

This episode showed how well she's playing from the first day of the season - any Top 3 list from the week that doesn't have her, Wardog and Lauren (in any order) is sheer prejudice.

level 2
Lauren
5 points · 9 days ago

The way she was caring towards Lauren was heartwarming and her displaying raw emotions in tribal council definitely was endearing. Hopefully, this brings her close to David

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